Summary:
- Data from Germany will be the most important event of the morning
- UK industrial trends will be a hint ahead of the industrial production
- Australian CPI is published overnight and will the most important print of the upcoming 24 hours
Tuesday began in a sleepy atmosphere, but more volatility could occur later in the day as some interesting prints are published. The crucial data, however, is published overnight.
Germany – IFO – 9:00 am BST – The headline Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to tick slightly lower to 114.9 in July versus 115.1 seen last month. The Current Assessment sub-index is also expected to decline to 123.8 this month, while the Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is seen at 106.5 in July, as compared to June’s 106.8 reading. The decline in the German manufacturing PMI suggests the IFO expectations index will decline and there is downside risk to consensus expectations. The data will be important for both euro and DAX.
UK – CBI industrial orders – 11:00 am BST – The consensus forecast for the CBI Industrial Trends Orders Book Balance Index calls for a modest dip to 12 for July from last month’s 16. But that’s still a positive reading and one that’s second only to June’s print in recent years. Such data is an important hint ahead of the the industrial production that could be crucial for the UK pound. Let us recall that the Bank of England meets next week, so it’s worth looking at this numbers.
US – Consumer Board – 3:00 pm BST – The U.S. Conference Board’s overall consumer sentiment measure had risen 1.3 points in June to 118.9, as consumers’ positive assessment of the present situation countered falling expectations for the future. Rebound in the job market was a main factor in consumers’ positive present attitude. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment’s preliminary figures showed falling expectations continued in July; however, consumers were still pleased with current economy. That is why today’s data could be somewhat weaker than last month, but still at elevated levels.
Ovenight – Inflation from Australia – Wednesday (2:30 am BST) – The AUD has broken above the upper bound of a long-term consolidation on hawkish minutes from the RBA. While the bank didn’t change rates, it showed that such move could happen rather sooner than later. That is why the inflation data, which is published quarterly, will be crucial for the currency. A solid print should support the AUD, which could push the AUDUSD towards multi-year highs.