Summary:
- US Trade balance falls to -53.1B vs -52.1B exp
- Canadian equivalent shows -3.2B vs -2.3B exp
- USDCAD adds to recent gains and moves close to prior resistance 1.2590
It’s a relatively quiet afternoon ahead on the data front from north America with the recent release of trade data from the US and Canada the main event. However, that’s not to say that the session will be uneventful with stock indices in keen focus following the recent large declines.
On the trade data front there was larger deficits than forecast from both the US and Canada. The US trade balance for December came in at -53.1B vs -52.1B expected after a prior reading of -50.5B. The Canadian equivalent showed a fall to -3.2B from -2.5B prior with the consensus forecast for a -2.3B print.
The US trade deficit increased as exports fell and imports rose in YoY terms during December. Source: xStation
The USDCAD pair has gained following the release, but is currently not far from retesting a prior resistance zone around 1.2590. The market had been trending lower for nearly the whole of January but the strong NFP data on Friday sparked a reversal and the cross has rallied approximately 300 pips off the lows.
USDCAD has moved higher again today but remains below the key swing level of 1.2590. Source: xStation
Looking at trend identification tools, the pair could also be seen to be at a potentially pivotal level. The 8 and 21 EMAs have converged and could be on the verge of printing a bullish cross which may be seen to indicate the start of an uptrend. Previous crosses back in September (bullish) and December (bearish) have signaled the start of sustained moves and a bullish cross alongside a break above 1.2590 would be a clear positive development.
The 8 and 21 EMAs could be set to print a bullish cross which may be seen as indicative as the start of an uptrend. Source: xStation