Summary:

• US durable good orders m/m rise to 2.6% but core reading falls to 0.0%
• Initial jobless claims fall to 209k – lowest levels since 1969
• USD falling lower on the day

The latest batch of data from the US has shown strong durable good orders and employment figures, but upon closer inspection the releases aren’t in fact that positive for the US dollar. Looking first at the durable goods orders, in m/m terms there was a sizable increase of 2.6% – well above the 1.6% expected but lower than the prior print of 3.0% (revised lower from 3.1%). 

 Durable goods orders rose once more but the core reading appears to be possibly rolling over after falling. Source: XTB Macrobond

But focusing just on the headline reading can give a misleading impression of the underlying dynamics, as far as this metric is concerned. Stripping out the transport influences one can arrive at a “core” reading and this is far less positive. In m/m terms the reading for March was 0.0%, below both the 0.5% expected and the 1.0% prior (revised lower from 1.2%). Looking at the chart above the trend for the core reading is also concerning with the red line gradually tailing off over the last year or so and it now actually points lower.  

 The USD is trading a little lower today after strong recent gains. Source: xStation

At the same time as the durable goods release there was also the latest employment figures from the US, with the initial jobless claims falling to its lowest level since 1969. This is clearly a strong number compared to the expected 230k and prior of 232k but US employment data has been strong for some time now, so this isn’t really anything new. 

 

 Initial jobless claims fell further in the last week with a print of 209k the lowest since the late 1960s. Source: Reuters