Summary:

• Oil has built on its recent recovery to hit a 2-week high
• DE30 has drifted lower and recovery remains fragile
• Possible EURUSD long term driver identified 
• New ECB VP expected to be announced; EURJPY and EURTRY near key levels
• Crypto markets edge higher with Bitcoin moving above 11k

One of the biggest risers today has been Oil, with crude prices building on last week’s gains to hit their highest levels in a fortnight. Despite lower volumes due to a US bank holiday for Preisdent’s day, Oil has moved firmly back above the $65 level after rising more than 1%. However, a potential longer-term S-H-S formation could be developing and this could be something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. 

Indices have been under a bit of pressure at the start of the week with the DE30 falling back below 12400. A technical overview of the DE30 can be found here. All major European indices were in the red on the cash close and the US is also looking a little weak after last week posting its largest gains in 5 years. 

Last week saw the EURUSD hit its highest level in 3 years but there was some notable selling seen heading into the weekend. A short-term potential triple top may be forming around the 1.25 handle and this is an area to keep an eye on for resistance going forward. Longer term the relative current account positions of the EMU and US as well as the so-called “twin-deficit” in the US could provide a upward force on the EURUSD and an in-depth discussion of this can be found here.

News that the Bank of Ireland’s Lane has pulled out of the race to be the new vice president of the European Central Bank has seemingly paved the way for Spain’s Luis de Guindos to assume the role. An announcement is expected at some point today and with Vitor Constancio’s term due to end in May, the new man could be in place in the not too distant future. Let’s look at 2 other pair which involve the single currency and are currently at interesting levels; the EURJPY and EURTRY.

Crypto markets have extended their recent recovery today with Bitcoin leading the way and moving back above the 11,000 handle for the first time in over a month. The market is now not far from doubling off its recent low beneath 6,000 and whilst there remains a long way to go before the dramatic declines could be forgotten, the recent price action will provide some comfort to HODLers.