Summary:

• Current account data may provide support to the EURUSD uptrend

• European stocks post minor declines following mixed opening

• Minutes from FOMC and EBC may turn to be real market movers this week

Trading on Monday may turn to be a little muted as US stock markets will remain closed for the holiday and no major macro releases are planned for today. Stocks in Europe show a little weakness. AUD is the strongest currency in the G10 basket while JPY and SEK perform the worst. Gold trades flat and oil gains supported by Middle-East tensions.

Admittedly, the current account data rarely tends to to be a market mover, it offers a clue to the long-term outlook for currencies. In this analysis we focus on current accounts of the United States as well as the EMU as it could become a major long-term driver for the EURUSD uptrend going forward.

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European benchmarks opened slightly higher after the weekend on the back of the optimism seen in Asia. The Eurogroup will meet today to discuss developments in the Greek case. One should keep in mind that the today’s trading may be a little muted as Chinese and US stock markets will remain closed for holiday.

Having looked at a technical analysis one may suspect that this week could belong to the US dollar. The dollar index drew a bullish engulfing on Friday and therefore the currency might witness a more notable rebound in the oncoming days.

February on the markets has been very intensive so far. Despite tons of volatility, most of the markets are still seeking direction. This includes EURUSD which recovered from a correction but traders will await central banks minutes anxiously.