Summary:

  • The EMU retail sales print expected to show another decent advance

  • NFP once again expected to show wage growth remain at 2.7% YoY

  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB.US) among companies reporting earnings today

Economic calendar on the final trading day of the week looks quite full. The final services PMI readings for June from the EMU economies will be released throughout the morning yet such advanced prints rarely move the market. Later on, the EMU retail sales print is scheduled for release followed by the NFP report in the early afternoon. Last but not least, the non-manufacturing ISM gauge will see daylight some time after the opening of the US session. Do notice that Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company owned by the legendary Warren Buffett, is scheduled to submit its earnings report today.

9:30 am BST – UK, Services PMI for July. While the other European countries have already released preliminary PMI readings for July the UK does not publish early prints. Therefore, today’s UK services PMI reading may be the sole one to move the market. So far we have got a mixed picture of the UK economy in July as manufacturing PMI missed expectations slightly and construction gauge provided a strong beat. Today’s reading for services sector is expected to show a slide from 55.2 pts to 54.7 pts and any bigger deterioration may put righteousness of yesterday’s BoE hike under question.

10:00 am BST – Eurozone, Retail Sales for June. The retail sales readings from the EMU suggest that the demand within the bloc remains strong. Let us recall that we have not seen a negative reading in YoY terms since early-2014. However, it should be noted that all four latest readings have missed the expectations therefore the picture of the eurozone may be not as rosy as economists think. According to the market consensus provided by Bloomberg today’s reading should show a 1.4% advance in YoY terms (1.4% previously) and 0.4% increase in MoM terms (0% previously).

1:30 pm BST – US, NFP Report for July. Third major event of the week after FOMC and BoE decisions. It is unquestionable that the US labour market is strong and we will most likely get another employment change reading close to 200k (193k expected). However, what concerns economists is the fact that the US economy still failed to produce a pick-up in the wage growth dynamics. Market consensus points for another 2.7% YoY reading what can be seen as somewhat disappointing given in how advanced stage of the economic cycle the US is in. Apart from that, the unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 3.9%.

3:00 pm BST – US, Non-Manufacturing ISM for July. The manufacturing ISM reading released on Wednesday saw a bigger-than-expected drop suggesting that the Trade War theme is taking its toll on the American business. Nevertheless, the services sector accounts for a far bigger share of the GDP and therefore data for this sector may be more relevant. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg point for a minor slide from 59.1 pts in June to 58.6 pts in July.

Notable US companies reporting earnings today:

  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB.US)

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)

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EURUSD has failed to break above the resistance zone ranging 1.1717-1.1747 again. The trade tensions pulled the pair back towards the lower bound of the consolidation range at 1.1575. In case bears manage to overcome this hurdle the support level at 1.1510 may prove to be the last chance for buyers. Source: xStation5