Summary:

  • Durable goods orders expected to decrease for the second month

  • Will DOE confirm massive inventories build suggested by API?

  • RBNZ may reinforce its latest dovish message

In Wednesday’s calendar we can find some interesting readings and events scheduled. While during the European session we will not get any meaningful data some semi-important figures from the US economy are going to be released in the early afternoon. Later on, DOE will publish its weekly report on the oil inventories. In the late evening RBNZ will announce its decision on interest rates and with the latest central bankers’ remarks in mind the message may be dovish.

1:30 pm BST – US, Durable Goods Orders for May. The durable goods orders data for April saw 1.7% MoM coming below expectations. The picture was even grimer adding to that prior reading that was revised higher. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect May to be another month of shrinking value of orders as durable good orders should be 1% smaller MoM. The wholesale inventories are expected to advance 0.2% MoM after increasing 0.1% MoM in prior month.

3:30 pm BST – US, Crude Oil Inventories. The surge on the oil market resulting from OPEC cartel reaching production agreement was enhanced by API data yesterday. Let us recall that the market expected inventories to shrink by 2.5 mb while the actual reading showed a stunning 9.2 mb decline. Consensus suggests that today’s DOE reading should show -2.5 mb with any decline bigger than that being a chance for oil to move even higher.

10:00 pm BST – RBNZ Decision. Central bankers from New Zealand revised their inflation forecasts lower during the latest meeting. Moreover, new governor said that the economy may actually need a rate cut rather than hike. Earlier this week RBNZ reinforced dovish message saying that NZD exchange rate stays at “elevated levels”. The Bank is widely expected to leave main interest rate unchanged at 1.75% but statement may be crucial.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

10:30 am BST – BoE Governor Carney

4:00 pm BST – Fed’s Quarles

5:15 pm BST – Fed’s Rosengren

8:00 pm BST – BoC Governor Poloz

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Taking a look at the NZDUSD chart the Antipodean currency does not seem to be at “elevated levels”. The pair is currently testing lower bound of the long term consolidation range. The RBNZ message may be crucial for the price movement direction. Source: xStation5