Summary:

  • The NFP report to be the key event of the day

  • Canadian Ivey PMI expected to inch higher in April

  • EURUSD may be subject to increased volatility today as a vast array of central bankers is expected to deliver speeches today

The USD big week is almost over with a last major reading to be released today. Today’s NFP report will once again be mainly about wages as investors will try to assess if there is an inflation pressure that may cause Fed bankers to lift rates four times this year. Apart from that we will get a retail sales reading from EMU and the PMI release from Canada today.

10:00 am BST – EMU retail sales for March. Market consensus expects an uptick in the eurozone’s retail sales data. The total value of the EMU sales at retail level in March is said to increase by 1.9% YoY, up from 1.8% YoY in February. The gauge rebound firmly after it slumped in October last year. However, the latest readings are still far below the 3.9% YoY increase in December.

1:30 pm BST – US, NFP report for April. The monthly report from the US labour market is going to be released today concluding the week full of US data. Investors will once again focus on wages to assess whether the inflation pressure is there or not. The market are still unsure if the Fed will become more hawkish after the latest PCE inflation reading saw inflation reaching Fed target. Economist surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 192k change in NFP against last month’s 103k and suggest that the wage data will remain on the prior level of 2.7% YoY. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.1% to 4%.

3:00 pm BST – Canada, Ivey PMI for April. After Ivey PMI reading for March missed the expectations of 60.2 pts and came in at 59.8 pts economists surveyed by Bloomberg suggest that the gauge may reach the former in April. An uptick to 60.2 pts would reinforce the strong outlook of the Canadian economy painted by the Ivey readings. Let us recall that we have not seen a reading below 50 pts since mid-2016.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

8:45 am BST – ECB’s Constancio

2:00 pm BST – ECB’s Weidmann

5:45 pm BST – Fed’s Dudley

8:00 pm BST – Fed’s Williams

10:30 pm BST – Fed’s Quarles

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After breaking out from the consolidation range EURUSD keeps marching lower. A technical situation seems to bode well for the bears as the pair broke the 200-day moving average recently. Source: xStation5