Summary:

• There are a few central bank meetings scheduled today, including ECB and BoE
• The US retail sales data could help USD recover
• Flash PMIs from Europe will show if the economy further accelerates 

Thursday’s calendar is really busy. The Fed’s hike yesterday kicked off the rate decision marathon. The Swiss central bank holds a meeting as a first, however, the market participants should chiefly focus on ECB and BoE. Moreover, there is a string of data from Europe and the US on the agenda – we will get the flash PMIs from euro area in the morning and retail sales in the afternoon. 

8:30, 9:00 am BST – preliminary PMIs from Germany and euro area for December. The European economy has been doing extraordinary well so far this year. What’s interesting, the data for November, showed that the growth momentum even accelerated. This trend should be sustained supporting euro.

8:30 am BST – Switzerland, SNB rate decision and Jordan’s press conference at 9:00 am BST. The  Swiss central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. SNB should be satisfied with weakening CHF, however, there is a question, how long the bank will be willing to maintain extremely loose monetary policy, whilst other central banks tend towards tightening. 

9:30 am BST – UK, retail sales for November. It has been a very important week for GBP given the avalanche of data. Inflation speeded up, figures from labour market were mixed and now investors await retail sales prints. There are concerns over consumption as it is the main driver of the UK economy and with inflation rising at the faster pace than wages the real incomes of consumers deteriorate. Moreover, the EU summit starts today – the EU leaders are to accept the latest conclusions of Brexit talks. The street calls for increase of 0.3% y/y in headline retail sales, whilst the core measure is expected to rebound to 0.4% y/y. 

12:00 pm BST – UK, BoE interest rate decision, minutes and votes. Investors do not expect changes at this meeting. The focus will be on the statement for clues about any potential rate hikes in the future. However, given a lackluster growth, it’s likely that BoE will keep the wait-and-see mode.

12:45 pm BST  – euro area, ECB interest rate decision and  Mario Draghi press conference at 1:30 pm BST. No changes are expected as the Bank set the path of its monetary policy for the next year already.  However, the press conference is always an interesting event for markets.

1:30 pm BST – US, retail sales for November. The US dollar has been hit by softer CPI figures and somewhat dovish Fed (even despite a rate hike). THus a retail sales data could help USD recover to some extent. The street calls for increase in headline retail sales of 0.3% m/m, whilst the core measure is expected to rebound to 0.7% m/m.

2:45 pm BST – US, preliminary PMIs for December. These indicators have been pointing out recently that the US economy accelerates growth. However, PMIs are treated just as a hint ahead of ISM prints, that are far more important for USD.

5:25 pm BST – Canada, BoC’s Governor Poloz is to deliver a speech. Bank of Canada has softened its stance recently, but if Poloz gives any hint about the possibility of further rate increases, CAD should strengthen. 

 EURUSD halts increases ahead of resistance located at 1.82520. The string of data from Europe and the US as well as ECB meeting could lead to larger volatility today. Source: xStation5