Summary:
- Geopolitics continue dominate market landscape as US&allies weigh military options for Syria
- Markets in decent moods as Trade Wars concerns abate
- US UoM the main release on Friday
The macro calendar will not be the thing that investors are really crazy about this Friday as the releases are second tier at best. Being already past the trade data from China release (see the opening analysis) the only noticeable release is the US University of Michigan sentiment indicator. However, it’s not going to be a game-changer. The focus is on US-Russia tensions centered around Syria and the closing prices on the oil market as a major break is very close from taking place there.
The US UoM sentiment indicator is the only major economic release today. Source: xStation5
8:00 am GMT – Spain, final HICP for March – consensus +1.3% y/y – not a major release as we already know that inflation disappointed in March in the EMU and final readings – as shown again in Germany – rarely bring major revisions
3:00 pm GMT – US, University of Michigan sentiment indicator – consensus 100.5 pts. – sentiment remains buoyant in the US, a small deterioration has been priced in so this could actually be a chance for the US dollar
6:00pm GMT – US oil rig counts – oil prices have not been driven by the data this week (actually both the API and DOE inventory reports were bearish) and the rig count report – which is a proxy for the future US production – may not change that. Still, as the weekly close will be very important for Brent prices the report is worth watching.
A close above previous highs could open up more upside for OIL prices. Source: xStation5