Summary:

  • Swedish inflation is expected to accelerate significantly, the SEK could be vulnerable
  • US PPI may be a precursor ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report
  • EIA will reveal its weekly change of oil stocks
  • An avalanche of central banks’ speakers during the day

Thursday seems to be pretty interesting when it comes to an amount of macroeconomic releases which will be enriched by several speeches of central bankers (mainly from the FED and the ECB). Moreover, EIA is expected to release its weekly update on oil stocks which could affect oil prices (API showed an unexpected build).

  • 8:30 am BST – Swedish CPI: At first, let us recall that the Riksbank made a notable decision at its latest meeting in September shifting its focus from CPI to CPIF as the latter is now the Swedish central bank’s official inflation target. Furthermore, the Swedish policymakers introduced a variation band of 1-3% for outcomes for CPIF because they realized that monetary policy is not able to steer inflation in detail and price dynamics vary around the goal. By and large, the SEK might be poised to be one of the most appreciated currency across the G10 once the Riksbank changes its mind in terms of interest rates. The consensus points to a 2.4% yoy rise when it comes to CPI and a 2.5% yoy increase as for CPIF – both gauges are for September.
  • 1:30 pm BST – US PPI: Producer Price Index is treated like a good prognosis ahead of Consumer Price Index, hence market participants are bound to pay attention to the former today for sure. Bear in mind that the latest jobs report illustrated a massive improvement in terms of wage growth which, if sustained, could translate into higher prices across the whole economy. It would also suggest that we could have already accomplished a natural unemployment rate which if achieved ought to exert upward pressure on wages. The street’s call points to a 2.6% yoy for the headline PPI and a 2% yoy pick-up as to the core gauge (stripping out food and energy).
  • 4:00 pm BST – Crude oil stocks by EIA: The recent hours for oil prices have been quite turbulent. Firstly, the OPEC revealed its monthly report boding well for further developments as far as supply and demand are concerned. Secondly, the API reported an unexpected build in US oil inventories which increased more than 3 million barrels, for that reason today’s consensus at -1.9 million barrels might be a bit tricky. Thus, even as oil stockpiles fell lower than expected it could be conducive to oil prices let alone a deeper draw.

Beside the above-mentioned releases one needs to underline several pivotal speeches from central banks, most of them will be from Washington where the conference at Institute of International Finance takes place. Let us come forth with all of them:

  • 10:30 am BST: Riksbank’s Ohlsson
  • 3:30 pm BST: FED’s Powell and Brainard, ECB’s Draghi and Praet
  • 6:30 pm BST: Riksbank’s Skingsley
  • 8:15 pm BST: BoC’s Wilkins
  • 8:30 pm BST: Riksbank’s Ingves
  • 8:45 pm BST: BoE’s Haldane
  • 9:00 pm BST: ECB’s Coeure
  • 9:10 pm BST : ECB’s Lautenchlaeger

link do file download linkMeanwhile, the USDCAD keeps on sliding following the FOMC minutes. The pair broke out of a downward limit of a channel, and could continue moving towards 1.2410. Source: xStation5