Summary:

• UK construction PMI show if an expansion in the industry has occurred actually
• Releases of factory and durable goods orders will be a good hint ahead of the US GDP print for the fourth quarter
• It’s a very important week for the USD and CAD

Monday’s data-wise is calm as usual. We’ll get just two noteworthy prints from UK and US, although they shouldn’t spur higher volatility on GBP or USD. Thus, political issues could be more important for markets today.

9:30 am BST – UK, construction PMI for November. PMI for this sector inched above 50-mark which represents expansion in October. So upcoming reading will show if it is a new stable trend. However, the construction industry isn’t the largest part of the UK economy, hence GBP reaction should be rather limited. More important could be a  Brexit talks that will take place later in the European session.

3:00 pm BST – US, factory orders and final durable goods for October. These are a second-tier data for the US dollar, however, they have an impact on GDP projections. Factory orders are seen declining by 0.4% m/m (+1.4% m/m previously), whilst the preliminary print for durable goods orders showed a slid of 1.2% m/m.

What to watch this week beyond Monday?

The US data: Services ISM (Tuesday, 3pm BST), ADP (Wednesday 1:15pm BST), NFP (Friday 1:30pm BST)

The first week of December will be full of data from the US economy. Recent releases suggest that the US economy is in a more than solid shape and the only concern for the Fed is inflation which is running below expectations this year. While there are no inflation figures scheduled to be released this week, investors will focus on wage dynamics in the Friday’s report from the labour market as higher wage growth could fuel more inflation in the future. Affected markets: EURUSD, US500 

Bank of Canada decision (Wednesday, 3pm BST)  

Bank of Canada had investors surprised a couple of time this year so December meeting is definitely worth watching by the CAD traders. The BoC raised rates twice during the third quarter and markets were looking for another hike in December but the Bank cooled these expectations in November. A hike seems unlikely but it will be interesting to see how the BoC shapes expectations for the next year.  Affected markets: USDCAD

Australian week: RBA decision (Tuesday, 3:30am BST), GDP (Wednesday, 12:30am BST)

The Australian dollar has been struggling so far during the final quarter of the year as the data questioned economic recovery. The RBA is expected to stay cautious and thus the largest impact may come from the GDP report on Wednesday. Do notice that the Aussie has been trying to recover against the greenback and the yen recently so these pairs will be watched next week. Affected markets: AUDUSD, AUDJPY.

 USDCAD has slid to lower bound of the current consolidation ahead of upcoming BoC meeting. Breaking below the nearest support could fuel further declines. Source: xStation5