Summary:

  • UK construction PMI along with EMU inflation are among the most important releases before noon
  • US dollar traders await an employment change measured by ADP as well as non-manufacturing ISM
  • DoE is going to release its weekly update on US oil stocks

Today’s calendar is packed with many crucial macroeconomic releases which investors should welcome. Before noon all eyes will be on UK construction PMI as well as the inflation report (core and headline) from the EMU for March. Looking beyond those readings the US dollar will be offered the monthly ADP print and non-manufacturing ISM. Finally the US Department of Energy will reveal its calculations with regard to oil inventories.

9:30 am BST – UK construction: The first PMI for March coming from the UK economy was revealed yesterday and showed a tiny acceleration compared to the prior month. However, as usual more attention is paid to construction and particularly to the services sector being the most important one. In case of today’s reading the consensus points to 51 meaning a slight slide from 51.4 points seen in February.

10:00 am BST – EMU inflation: Inflation numbers coming from European economies illustrated a widespread bounce from the local low registered in the second month of the year. Therefore, the price growth data for the whole European economy is forecast to show the similar story as the consensus indicates 1.4% yoy in case of the headline CPI and 1.1% yoy for the core gauge. Together with the inflation data we will be offered the unemployment rate for February which is expected to go down to 8.5% from 8.6%.

1:15 pm BST – US ADP employment report: After a healthy gain in the data for February (+235k) today’s report is anticipated to show another decent pick-up equal 210k new jobs. Although, as everybody well knows, the employment change is no longer an important mover for the greenback or US stocks it’s always worth looking at as it may set the bar for the governmental data being scheduled for Friday.

3:00 pm BST – US non-manufacturing ISM: Manufacturing saw a modest deceleration for March, albeit the price paid subindex surged to its highest level for several years. Therefore, if today’s data paints the same or comparable picture it could raise concerns regarding elevated price pressures which may weigh on stocks’ valuation. The median estimate suggests 59 points meaning a slight fall compared to 59.5 in February.

3:30 pm BST – US oil stocks by DoE: The American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that US stocks shrank as much as 3.3 million barrels bringing respite for oil prices as analysts had looked for a small build of 0.246 million barrels. On the other hand, gasoline stocks increased (the consensus had pointed to a 1.26 million barrels draw) while distillates inventories saw a surprise build of 2.2 million barrels when analysts had forecast a 1.13 million barrels decline. Oil prices are losing momentum in the morning being down ca. 0.4% hence they seem to need the robust DoE report later today. The consensus suggests a 0.2 million barrels increase in case of crude oil while gasoline and distillates are expected to report draws.

link do file download linkThe USDCAD has found itself on the verge a major breakout being traded slightly below a 1.28 handle in the morning. A daily close below 1.28 should open the way for lower levels. Source: xStation5