Summary: 

  • US data on consumer confidence could be decisive for US dollar
  • Watch for any remarks from Draghi and Poloz at 2:30pm BST that could have an impact on EURCAD

This week is not enormously heavily packed with the macroeconomic reports but we are having few pieces from the US. While the key report on inflation will be released on Friday, today’s consumer confidence survey could provide a hint on a direction the US economy is headed.

8:30am (BST) Fed’s Williams speaks in Canberra – FOMC speakers were positive on the US economy over the past days, helping the greenback a bit

11:00am UK CBI index – sales index is expected to go up from 2 to 5 points. To as important as retail sales data but could have some impact on GBPUSD

2:30pm Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (Bank of Canada) participate in the ECB panel. While we do not think Draghi could say anything new it will be interesting to hear from Poloz. Bank of Canada has started signalling a possible rate increase so any hawkish comment could help CAD. Watch EURCAD around this event.  

3pm US Conference Board consumer sentiment index. The index is expected to decline for the third month in a row. It stormed higher early in the 2017 but has disappointed markets on two occasions in April and May. A lasting reversal in confidence could be warning sign for the Fed so a reading below expected 116 points could hurt US dollar. 

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If the US consumer confidence peaked, the economy could struggle going forward. Another “miss” in this report could hurt US dollar. Source: Bloomberg.  

9:40pm API data on US inventories – oil prices have recovered from a slump a bit but we need to see lower US inventories for this rebound to last.