Summary:

  • UK jobs report should steal the show during the day
  • Housing data from the US economy
  • Oil inventories data provided by DoE

Today is all about the British pound once again. We got the solid inflation report yesterday which, in case of the UK economy, wasn’t welcome by FX traders and the labor market report should provide the holistic landscape of one of the key part of the British economy. Moreover, we’ll have the housing data from the US as well as a weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil stocks.

9:30 am BST – UK jobs report: The labor market seems to be a key part of the UK economy being the apple of some traders’ eye, however policymakers in the BoE have a single mandate and it’s inflation. Having regard to undue inflationary pressures there are getting wider concerns about a negative impact on real wage growth which, if it remains lackluster, could undercut GDP growth via weaker consumer expenditures. Thus, the wage data will be pivotal and the consensus shows 2.1% yoy and 2% yoy in case of average weekly earnings and weekly earnings ex bonuses respectively. Moreover, the jobless rate is expected to stay at 4.3% yoy.

1:30 pm BST – US housing data: The housing data from the US is not the most important one but it could be worth looking at anyway as it tends to respond to changes in market rates. So the higher market rates (costs of debt rise), the larger restrictions on the housing market. The market consensus suggests 1245k as to building permits and 1180k when it comes to housing starts.

3:30 pm BST – Oil inventories by DoE: Oil prices have had quite a successful week so far being propped up by some clashes in Kurdistan and the overall better performance of the commodity market. What’s more, we got the API report yesterday which showed a massive draw of stocks equal 7.13 million barrels which could bode well before the governmental report today. The street’s call indicates that stocks have dropped 4.2 million barrels but one needs to take into account that investors could already expect a bit deeper draw given what API reported.

Central bank speakers worth looking at during the day:

  • 9:10 am BST – ECB’s Draghi
  • 12:30 pm BST – ECB’s Angeloni
  • 12:45 pm BST – ECB’s Praet
  • 1:00 pm BST – FED’s Dudley
  • 3:15 pm BST – ECB’s Coeure

link do file download linkMeanwhile, the USDCAD has dropped lately which could lead to a pullback towards 1.2450. Source: xStation5