Summary:

  • Several ECB members are scheduled to speak in Sintra during the day
  • US housing data is forecast to be mixed for May
  • Central bank of Hungary should stay on hold with rates

Tuesday looks quite calmly in terms of macroeconomic readings, and beyond prints from the US investors will get little to digest during the day. Therefore, attention might be paid to the ongoing trade war thread as well as Sintra, Portugal where several European Central Bank members are scheduled to speak.

1:00 pm BST – Hungarian central bank decision: Hungarian monetary policy remains one of the most expansionary among EMEA countries. Beside keeping rates unchanged the bank decided to implement unorthodox measures including purchases of MBS, and the IRS (interest rate swap) programme both aimed at lowering longer term rates. The bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.9%.

1:30 pm BST – US housing data: Everybody well knows that this kind of data is not among top-tier releases, but from time to time it may shake markets alike. This time housing starts are forecast to increase to 1311k from 1287k, while building permits should subtly dwindle to 1350k from 1352k – both prints are for May. Notice that further escalation of trade frictions between China and the US might lead to a continued flow towards US Treasuries pushing yields lower and being a little drag on the greenback.

9:30 pm BST – API crude oil inventories: Oil traders were offered quite decent headlines yesterday that an output increase, a theme which is likely to be brought up during the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Vienna later this week, might be much lower than initially thought. In this respect oil might be yet more vulnerable to any releases, hence today’s API calculation might noticeably influence prices.

Central bank speakers for today:

  • 9:00 am BST – ECB’s Draghi
  • 9:30 am BST – ECB’s Praet
  • 12:00 pm BST – EBC’s Lane/Praet

link do file download linkBrent prices faced an obstacle after soaring following reports an output increase would be lower than anticipated. Right now $75.3 looks the nearest resistance, and therefore a pullback even toward $72.5 might be realistic. Source: xStation5