Summary:
- US retail sales M/M: 0.5% vs 0.5% exp
- Prior revised higher to give slight positive skew
- USD remains lower on the day
The latest consumer spending figures from the US have come in broadly in line with forecasts, although some upwards revisions to prior prints gives a slight positive skew to the releases. First off the headline retail sales for May came in at +0.5% M/M, inline with the forecast. This is the second consecutive beat for this data, and with the prior reading being revised higher to 1.3% from 0.8% beforehand, it can be seen to be mildly positive. The core reading paints a similar picture with a print of 0.4%, inline with expectations, and again the previous enjoyed a decent bump higher, now standing at 1.4% from 0.9% initially.
Both the headline and core (ex-auto) retail sales continue to rise with the prior revisions also contributing positively. Source: XTB Macrobond
Diving into the finer details of the release there is some cause for concern potentially in the control group reading which came in flat at 0.0% compared to an expected 0.4% increase. This could be seen to negate the positivity surrounding the upwards revisions to the prior prints and may also be seen to bode not too well for Q2 GDP.
The USD was lower on the day ahead of the data and remains under water against the vast majority of its peers since the release. Source: xStation
One USD pair that has reached a noteworthly level of late is the GBPUSD which has run into prior resistance and shown some possible reversal signals. The swing level around 1.3290 marks the highest level seen since Boris Johnson’s shock resignation last week and an inverted hammer on H1 shows the presence of sellers around here once more.
GBPUSD has run into some resistance around prior highs and if the USD recovers then it could be set for further declines. Source: xStation