Summary:

• Final inflation from the euro area should confirm a healthy bounce in May
• Industrial production along with consumer confidence measured by UoM among the most important readings this afternoon

The US dollar has performed the best so far this week comparing to its major peers in G10. However, as the week is slowly coming to an end some may scratch their head whether those gains are maintainable, and a set of releases from the US may provide an answer.

Before we enter the US session there will not many readings noteworthy before noon as the calendar is almost empty except for the final inflation data from the EMU. It ought to confirm a noticeable jump in prices last month, but it’s unlikely to be any market mover. Otherwise, there will be the trade data where the median estimate suggests a slightly lower surplus in April. All of these readings will come out at 10:00 am BST

In the afternoon attention should be paid to US industrial production (1:30 pm BST) together with consumer confidence provided by the University of Michigan (3:00 pm BST). In terms of the former expectations point to a 0.2% increase in May, down from 0.7% mom in the prior month. At the same time capacity utilization is forecast to build up to 78.1% from 78%, if so it would be another shy signal regarding mounting inflationary pressures. In turn, the preliminary gauge of US consumer confidence is to pick up to 98.5 points in June from 98 points. Looking at this release it’s worth paying attention to inflation expectations as well.

Central bank speakers for today:

• 9:30 am BST – ECB’s Nowotny
• 9:45 am BST – ECB’s Coeure
• 4:00 pm BST – ECB’s Smets
• 6:30 pm BST – Fed’s Kaplan

USDCHF surged yesterday, and it keeps moving up in the morning. The pivotal resistance seems to be already in sight. Source: xStation5