Summary:

  • Swiss inflation data seems to be worth looking at given a global inflationary push
  • UK services PMI should be the most important print for the pound today, beware of downbeat surprises
  • Trade data from the US as well as Canada is in the spotlight as the trade war thread keeps unfolding

Thursday is bringing less important releases compared to Wednesday as traders are awaiting the jobs report from the US on Friday. Having said that, there will be a reading of UK services PMI which might influence the pound to some extent as construction PMI did so yesterday. On top of that, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the trade data both from the US and Canada as trade seems to be the salient topic for the global economy nowadays.

8:15 am BST – Swiss inflation: The Swiss inflation report rarely tends to be a market mover for the CHF, and this is especially true when we take into account that the Swiss National Bank is far away from even considering a rate hike in the foreseeable future. However, global central banks’ rhetoric is evolving toward a more hawkish tilt therefore the SNB cannot sit on its hands especially as it holds its rates anchored well below the zero bound. The consensus points to 0.6% yoy and 0.3% mom.

9:30 am BST – UK services PMI: The services PMI is usually the most important one for the British assets what stems from the fact that this sector is the largest part of the economy and it has been hit hard by a real wage growth squeeze due to elevated inflation lately. Yesterday we were offered construction PMI which showed a profound decrease being caused by adverse weather though (the story could repeat itself so stay cautious). The median estimate indicates that the index should dwindle to 54 from 54.5 points.

1:30 pm BST – Trade data from the US and Canada: Admittedly, the US has put Canada on the white list in terms of steel and aluminium duties, NAFTA talks have yet to end up with any agreement. Thus, Trump could still use this topic as a bargaining chip in those talks so as to reach a successful deal for his country. Both reading will be for February and there are expected to print -56.8 billion USD for the US and -2.1 billion CAD for Canada.

Central bank speaker scheduled for today:

  • 5:00 pm BST – SNB’s Maechler
  • 6:00 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic

link do file download linkThe USDCAD finally moved through its support placed at around 1.28 paving the way for further decline going forward. Source: xStation