Summary:

  • Inflation reports from the US as well as Germany are going to be released
  • Canadian GDP for January could prove to be a market mover for the Loonie
  • Baker Hughes is going to reveal its weekly update on oil rigs a day earlier due to Good Friday

Thursday is going to bring relevant inflation prints from the US and the German economy, and therefore the EURUSD could be one of the most volatile pair during the day. On top of that the Canadian dollar may be subject to hesitant moves as well as monthly GDP growth for January will be released. Finally, the Baker Hughes will publish its weekly update concerning a change in oil rigs.

1:00pm/1:30pm BST – Inflation from Germany/US: Inflation readings are always among the top tier macroeconomic data as they tend to bring huge price swings across currencies and elsewhere alike. After a slowdown in February German price growth is forecast to bounce to 1.6% in a year-over-year basis (HICP) while the monthly basis should come out at 0.5% in line with its prior value. After the German data the US inflation report will be released (30 minutes later) where market participants expect PCE to stay unchanged at 1.7% while the core measure of PCE to tick up from 1.5% to 1.6% in February. In terms of the macroeconomic calendar in the US there will be Chicago PMI (2:45 pm BST) being estimated to come at 62 points meaning a tiny decrease compared to February (61.9).

1:30 pm BST – Canadian GDP: The Canadian dollar has been the worst major currency so far this year mainly due to adverse effects from NAFTA talks, some data disappointments and trade war concerns. However, the macroeconomic backdrop of the Canadian economy seems to look quite well (however, bear in mind that it has to cope with a tremendous discount seen its oil grade WCS), and on that account a rebound over the medium- to longer-term appears to be reasonable. Do notice that the CAD remains among undervalued currencies in the G10 basket based on the REER analysis. In this respect today’s GDP for January may be especially worth looking at, and if it meets forecasts the CAD could get back its lost appeal at a time when the greenback stops growing due to month-end flows. GDP is forecast to come in at 0.1% mom and 2.9% yoy.

6:00 pm BST – US oil rigs count: The last week saw a slight increase in US oil rigs and the trend ought to continue going forward as oil prices remain quite high. Do notice that the report will be released a day earlier than usual due to Good Friday.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

6:00 pm BST – Fed’s Harker

link do file download linkThe USDCAD bounce off its demand area placed at around 1.28, today’s data could push the pair below this line once GDP beats expectations. Source: xStation5