Summary:

• Riksbank will make its interest rate decision in the morning

• US inflation and retail sales figures to take the spotlight in the early afternoon

• Will DOE report confirm major build in inventories suggested by API?

The long-awaited day is here. Looking at Wednesday calendar we can see a vast array of important macro releases. European economies will release their preliminary GDP prints throughout the morning. Moreover, Riksbank is about to hold its meeting. Later on, pack of data from the US will steal the show. Last but not least, DOE report on crude oil inventories will draw attention of oil traders in the evening.

8:30 am BST – Sweden, Riksbank interest rate decision. Swedish krone has had a rough time recently as it underperformed against its peers, most notably euro. Among reasons for this we can name one of the lowest interest rates held by the Swedish central bank. The things may change as the Riksbank seems to be preparing for the first rate hike. Markets do not expect the hike during this meeting yet they are almost sure it will take place during 2018. One should keep in mind that today’s meeting will be followed by the press conference.

10:00 am BST – Eurozone, GDP for Q4. The measure of the total economic activity in the Eurozone. The European economy has been constantly growing at the increasing pace since 2014 when we saw last negative reading. The Q3 print showed a value of 2.8% in YoY terms (revised from 2.6%). This time market consensus points for a reading of 2.7% what would indicate a little downside. However, one should keep in mind that this is a preliminary print.

1:30 pm BST – US, Inflation and retail sales for January. The long-awaited data from the US economy. Given the superb condition of the US economy proven by recent macro releases traders will take a closer look on the inflation figures to assess possible future monetary policy moves from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg point for a reading of 1.9% YoY what would indicate a downside against 2.1% seen last time. In MoM terms inflation is expected to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.1% previously. Apart from that we will also get figures concerning retail sales. Market consensus points for a print of 0.2% MoM against 0.4% seen last time.

3:30 pm BST – US, Crude Oil Stocks. Official government report on crude oil inventories. Oil prices have been under pressure in the recent days causing a corrective move on both Brent and WTI. Yesterday’s API report suggested a major build of 3.947M against 2.8M expected. Speaking of DOE report market consensus points an increase in inventories at the level of 2.747M. However, oil traders will also watch production figures as US output increased significantly.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

8:00 am BST – ECB’s Weidmann

8:50 am BST – SNB’s Zurbruegg

10:20 am BST – ECB’s Mersch

USDSEK has lost some of its steam recently. Will today’s data pack help USD recover? Source: xStation5