Summary:

  • The US macro data, including goods trade balance and Chicago PMI, in focus
  • DoE report on inventories to steer oil prices today
  • ECB Economic Bulletin could be interesting release for EUR traders

It’s going to be a relatively busy day as far as economic events are concerned. In the afternoon we get macro data from the US. However, these figures are not top-tier, hence they should not stop the recent USD weakness. A DoE report on crude inventories could be more important given oil prices hovering near their 2015 highs. 

9:00 am BST – ECB Economic Bulletin. This document contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. However, this figure should not impact EUR significantly. 

1:30 pm BST – US, goods trade balance and weekly jobless claims and Chicago PMI at 2:45 pm BST. Markets steadily approach the final stretch until the new trading year and investors will have the last chance to look to the final wave of economic data for signs of continued strength in the US economy. However, these figures are not of the highest importance and they could not be able to significantly support the US dollar. The goods trade balance deficit for November is expected to narrow to 67.60bln USD from 68.10bn USD. The street calls for a decline in weekly jobless claims to 240k from 245k. When it comes to Chicago PMI, which is one of the key leading indicators, we should see it declining to 62.0 from 63.9. 

4:00 pm BST – US, DoE oil inventory data. Oil has had a very strong year. Its price has been bolstered by strong economic environment and OPEC’s effort to limit supply. Looking forward there are some very conflicting view and factors. While the OPEC is very optimistic for 2018 the IEA warned that supply growth will outpace demand at the time when speculative positioning is at the all-time highs. Declining US inventories were among the most bullish news recently so the report on Thursday is a must to watch for oil traders. 

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 EURUSD could be heading towards its highs from November located at 1.19615. Source: xStation5