Summary:

• Riksbank meeting could be a crucial event for SEK
• DoE report on oil inventories in focus
• NZD awaits another crucial data from the NZ economy

Today’s meeting of the Swedish central bank could be more interesting than usual as Riksbank may follow ECB and limit somewhat its extremely loose monetary policy. Hence, SEK should be in the limelight today. Moreover, the DoE report could spur higher volatility in oil prices and NZD awaits another key data from the NZ economy – the Q3 GDP is on the Wednesday’s agenda.

8:30 am BST – Sweden, Riksbank meeting and Governor Ingves press conference at 10:00 am BST. This time the Swedish Riksbank has a comfort of knowing a decision of the ECB before deciding on its own. It could also have been assured by a pick up in inflation to 2%. Although few expect the Bank to depart from the ultra-low rate policy for now, even slightest signs of confidence could be useful for the krona. As it happens, EURSEK is stuck at 10 which is an upper band of a multi-year consolidation. Will traders find reasons to become bullish on SEK again?

1:15 pm BST – UK, BoE’s Governor Carney speaks at Parliment Hearing. Carney is to address the November financial stability report, but he may also give some comments on BOE policy, especially there was no press conference after the last bank’s meeting. On the other hand, BoE is unlikely to change its monetary policy anytime soon, thus political factors such as Brexit talks should be the biggest driver for GBP in upcoming months. 

3:00 pm BST – US, existing home sales data for November. It’s the only reading from the US economy scheduled to release today.  However, it should not spur a larger reaction in USD or on Wall Street, unless there is a huge miss or upside surprise. The existing home sales data is expected to come in at +0.9% m/m. Previously the reading showed an increase of 2.0%.

3:30 pm BST – US, DoE report on oil inventory data. Declining crude oil inventories in the US with OPEC policy have helped prices rebound so far this year. However, previous data showed a build in gasoline and distillate stocks that may indicate a lower oil demand from refineries and the US output has been on the rise. On the other hand, API suggest another solid draw in oil inventories (by 5.2mm barrels).

9:45 pm BST – New Zealand, GDP print for the third quarter. The NZ dollar has come under a strong selling pressure after disappointing result of GDT milk auction and miss in trade balance and current account data. Hence, the GDP release gives an opportunity for NZD to recover as the bar of expectations is not set high – consensus calls for increase of 2.3% y/y (0.5% m/m), whilst the previous data showed growth of 2.5% (0.8%).

 EURSEK failed to break above 10 handle. Will Riksbank let the pair to drift lower? Source: xStation5