Summary:
- ISM non-manufacturing misses forecasts
- GBP looks to recover after soft service sector data
- AUD rises on hawkish shift in RBA
- NZD also gains on central bank speak and improvement in GDT results
- USDCAD hits 6-week low after trade balance data
- Technical overview on Oil.WTI
- Bitcoin wrestles with record peak
The US ISM non-manufacturing data for November came in below forecast, echoing the miss seen in the manufacturing equivalent last week. Despite this the US dollar is edging higher on the day and Gold is threatening to break lower after falling close to a 4-month low.
The disappointing data on the services sector followed an earlier release from this side of the Atlantic with the UK PMI also coming in below forecasts. The release saw some further weakness in GBP after yesterday’s failure to make a Brexit talk breakthrough, but sterling has recovered somewhat as the session has wore on.
The Australian dollar received a twin boost overnight, with some better than forecast retail sales figures and a hawkish RBA meeting. An adjustment in forward guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia omitted a reference that “inflation is likely to remain low for some time” and this saw the Aussie move higher. Australian GDP data is set to be released tonight at 12:30 GMT.
Appreciating Antipodean currencies are a bit of a theme today with the New Zealand dollar gaining during the Asian session on its own hawkish comments from a central banker, this time RBNZ’s Spencer. An improvement in the fortnightly GDT price index auction this afternoon provided more cause for confidence amongst Kiwi bulls and the NZDUSD has approached a fairly interesting level from a technical point of view.
The USDCAD pair fell to a 6-week low this afternoon after contrasting trade data from the North American neighbours. A larger than expected deficit in the US contrasted with a smaller than forecast one in Canada for the month of October and the combined effect saw the USDCAD move lower. Traders will likely have one eye on tomorrow’s BOC rate decision to see whether there could be further declines for this cross.
A technical overview of OIL.WTI can be found here. The benchmark is little changed on the day and given that OPEC last week extended their production cuts to the end of next year it may be a good time to see how the market reacted and what this could mean going forward.
Bitcoin has made a relatively small and steady gain so far today with the cryptocurrency retesting its previous all-time high around 11900. Price has struggled to move above this level and a despite the imminent offering of Bitcoin futures from the CME and CBOE, there is a worrying lack of increase in daily transactions to support the parabolic increase in price.