Summary:

• Preliminary inflation prints from Germany could steer euro today
•  DoE’s report on the US inventories may add volatility to the market ahead of OPEC meeting
• Prominent figures from the key central banks are on Wednesday’s agenda as well

Preliminary CPI prints from Germany should be the key event for forex traders as lack of imminent inflationary pressure refrains ECB from tightening its monetary policy and keeps market rates subdued. Moreover, the DoE’s report on the US inventories will be the last important release ahead of OPEC meeting. The rest of the Wednesday’s calendar is also interesting as we get the second GDP reading from the US and Fed’s Yellen as well as BoE’s Carney are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. 

8:00 am BST – Spain, preliminary CPIs for November. Maybe it’s not the most significant event of the day, but releases from Spain should set expectations towards German CPIs. Market consensus calls for an increase of 1.6% y/y (the same as previous), whilst HICP is seen rising to 1.9% y/y from 1.7% y/y. 

8:30 am BST – Sweden, GDP reading for the third quarter. EURSEK has been elevated of late thus the pair could be more vulnerable to positive signals from Swedish economy. The GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% y/y following the increase of 3.1% y/y in the previous quarter.

1:00 pm BST – Germany, preliminary CPIs for November. Inflation differential is set to hog the limelight today. German preliminary data is expected to show the cost of living as represented by the consumer price index increased 0.3% m/m (1.7% y/y) in November. This would be a slight pickup compared to October when CPI index showed 0.0% m/m (1.6% y/y). Stronger inflationary figures should help somewhat euro. 

1:30 pm BST – US, the second GDP reading for the third quarter. The street expects an upward revision of the preliminary print to 3.2% from 3.0% in the annualised pace. Other details could be also relevant for investors.

2:00 pm BST – UK, BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at FMSB event. However, he could there omit the monetary policy issues. GBP has been on the rise recently due to a progress made in Brexit talks.

3:00 pm BST – US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address Joint Economic Committee of Congress on the US economic outlook. Yellen should confirm that the US economy is strong enough to raise rates for the third time this year in December. 

3:30 pm BST -US, DoE report on oil inventories. The latest estimates from API suggest that crude inventories rose by 1.82mm barrels whilst earlier expectations assumed a draw of almost 3mm barrels. In turn, oil prices retraced somewhat but they are still elevated as investors await OPEC meeting which takes place on Thursday. 

 OIL.WTI pulled back after a build in inventories registered by API. Nevertheless, oil prices remain elevated awaiting official numbers from DoE and OPEC meeting. Source: xStation5