Summary:

• JOLTS job openings for August falls to 6.08M vs 6.13M exp
• This indicator has consistently beaten forecasts in 2017
• USD vulnerable heading into FOMC minutes

It’s a relatively quiet day of economic release with the US JOLTS openings the only data out of note. Whilst this number doesn’t attract much attention or cause anywhere near the volatility that the more widely viewed NFP report does, it has been quoted before by the Fed on several occasions when discussing the labour market and therefore could impact on the central banks decision making.

 The US dollar is lower today, falling across the majority of its peers. Source: xStation

The figure itself is the number of job openings reported during the month and excludes the farming industry – the same as NFP. The reading of 6.08M would be classed as fairly strong historically speaking but given an expected 6.13M and a downward revision to the prior to 6.14M from 6.17M previously it comes as a slightly soft number.

The data is less current with the release today relating to August and this could be one of the reasons that its impact is diminished in the markets. Therefore when comparing the JOLTS number to NFP we should compare it to the prior result which for the latter is 169k (revised higher from 156k previously). Along these lines the below expected reading today doesn’t include September which NFPs unexpectedly turn negative for the first time in 7 years.   

 The USD index has now fallen below the 38.2% fib retracement (92.90) of the corrective bounce seen since the 2017 low. Source: xStation

We noted yesterday that the USD index (USDIDX on xStation) had broken below a rising trendline from the 2017 lows and there’s been more declines seen today. The market has fallen below the 38.2% fib retracement of the corrective bounce seen over the last month or so at 92.90 and this could now be viewed as possible resistance. If price fails to reclaim this level then further declines may lie ahead with the 50.0% and 61.8% at 92.53 and 92.17 respectively offering possible supports.  

 The rise seen in the USDIDX since the last FOMC meeting could be under threat if the release of the minutes this evening fail to support the move. Source: xStation

Looking ahead the FOMC minutes are due out at 7PM in what could be a widely watched event for USD traders. The meeting itself sparked a fairly strong move higher with the USDIDX rising from the low 91s ahead of the event to above 94 last Friday. Fed December rate hike expectations have increased markedly since the meeting from around 40% prior to the release and press conference to in excess of 80% now. Given this rise in both the USD and Fed rate hike expectations in the weeks since the event traders will be looking to see if the minutes support these increases, with any disappointment threatening to cause further downside in the market.