Summary:

  • US retail sales could be a turning point for the US dollar
  • Industrial production and Michigan releases in the spotlight as well
  • Some central bank speakers are going to take the floor later in the day

The US dollar got the reassuring inflation data yesterday as both CPI and core CPI quite easily beat forecasts. Even as a pick-up in terms of CPI could have been mainly fueled by higher gasoline prices (a consequence of the hurricane Harvey), it might be a critical point for the greenback which has responded fairly weak to a surge seen on the US Treasuries over the course of recent days. That said, retail sales might be a game-changer.

1:30 pm BST – US retail sales: Everyone knows that the US economy relies heavily upon consumption when it comes to GDP growth. Thus, retail sales is among the closest scrutinized macroeconomic releases. The US dollar index (USDIDX on xStation5) has made strides as of late but has failed to keep on rising despite the great inflation numbers. However, taking into account that the US10Y yield seems to be stick to 2.2% one could assume that better retail sales might help US yields and thereby shore up the greenback. The headline is expected to come in at 0.1% mom, the ex-auto gauge should show a 0.5% mom pick-up while the control group is slate to reveal a 0.2% increase.

US industrial production (2:15 pm BST) and consumer confidence by University of Michigan (3:00 pm BST): After the retail sales report (the most impotent one scheduled for today as for the US dollar) there will be two also noteworthy readings. Industrial production is expected to come in at 0.2% mom in August. Let us remind that the latest jobs report unveiled a hefty increase of employment in manufacturing, hence higher numbers of industrial output could solidify that trend going forward. On top of that, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary reading on consumer confidence which as usual will be accompanied by inflation expectations measures. The headline is anticipated to show 95.2

6:00 pm BST – oil rigs count: The recent prints reported a falling count of active oil rigs, hence that trend is expected to be retained. Moreover, it can be interesting whether adverse weather conditions have affected the data.

Central bank speakers:

  • ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (9:15 am BST)
  • BoE’s Vlieghe (9:50 am BST)

link do file download linkThe EURUSD didn’t break a local support in the vicinity of 1.1850, hence a move to the upside could be in the offing. The nearest resistance can be found just shy of 1.20. Source: xStation5